Usage and experience of ALADIN by forecasters and end-users in Czech Republic ALADIN Forecasters meeting (Ankara, Turkey; 10 - 11 SEPTEMBER 2014) Tomas.

Prezentace na téma: "Usage and experience of ALADIN by forecasters and end-users in Czech Republic ALADIN Forecasters meeting (Ankara, Turkey; 10 - 11 SEPTEMBER 2014) Tomas."— Transkript prezentace:

1 Usage and experience of ALADIN by forecasters and end-users in Czech Republic ALADIN Forecasters meeting (Ankara, Turkey; 10 - 11 SEPTEMBER 2014) Tomas Mejstrik tomas.mejstrik@chmi.cz

2 Outline NWP model ALADIN is used for wide variety of products in CHMI Forecasters uses Visual Weather environment to make most of weather forecasts and products Output from ALADIN in graphical, tabular form Compare ALADIN model and other NWP model with forecaster

3 Usage of model ALADIN Use of ALADIN for making weather warnings Special forecasts for energetic companies Tabular and graphical forecast Meteograms Mobile applications

4 Common usage Meteogram

5 Weather warnings Instability parameters

6 Weather warnings Instability parameters

7 Convective parameters Weather warnings

8 Simple parameters Tabular forecasts FXCZ85 OKSC 021100 dd/mm/rrrr hh:mm T2m FF10 DD10 NB NBh NBm NBl ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 02/09/2014 06:00 12.6 3.1 324.6 0.99 0.87 0.97 0.73 02/09/2014 07:00 13.2 3.4 327.5 0.99 0.84 0.97 0.76 02/09/2014 08:00 13.9 3.5 329.2 0.99 0.84 0.97 0.81 02/09/2014 09:00 14.5 3.6 332.1 1.00 0.85 0.97 0.86 ……… 04/09/2014 09:00 17.0 3.0 74.5 0.91 0.70 0.56 0.51 04/09/2014 10:00 18.0 3.1 77.8 0.91 0.68 0.57 0.50 04/09/2014 11:00 18.7 3.1 78.4 0.92 0.71 0.59 0.48 04/09/2014 12:00 19.3 3.2 79.0 0.94 0.77 0.61 0.45 comment: T2m..... Temperature 2 m above ground [°C] FF10.... Wind speed v 10 m [m/s] DD10.... Wind direction v 10 metrech [stupne] NB...... Total cloudiness [%] NBh..... High level cloudiness [%] NBm..... Medium level cloudiness [%] NBl..... Low level cloudiness [%] Advanced parameters FXCZ62 OPIN 021030 02.09.2014 na 03.09.2014 na 04.09.2014 na 05.09.2014 RÁNO ODPOLEDNE RÁNO ODPOLEDNE RÁNO ODPOLEDNE MĚSTO POC RR% TEP POC RR% TEP DD FF TP POC RR% TEP POC RR% TEP DD FF Praha M 0 13 Z 10 22 SV 3 23 Z 10 14 O 10 24 V 4 Kladno - - 12 Z 10 21 SV 2 23 - - 13 O 10 24 V 4 Mladá Boleslav - - 12 O 20 22 SV 2 23 - - 13 O 0 24 V 4 Příbram - - 10 ZD 30 20 SV 4 20 - - 11 OD 30 22 V 4 Kolín - - 13 Z 10 23 SV 4 23 - - 14 P 10 25 V 4 Nymburk - - 13 Z 10 23 SV 5 22 - - 14 P 0 25 V 4 Benešov - - 12 Z 20 21 SV 4 21 - - 12 OD 30 22 V 3 Beroun - - 11 Z 20 22 SV 3 23 - - 12 Z 20 24 V 4

9 Storm forecast parameters Tabular forecasts Předpověď na den 6912151821 ALA D LME B ECMCGFSALADLMEBECMCGFSALADLMEBECMCGFSALADLMEBECMCGFSALADLMEBECMCGFSALADLMEBECMCGFS labilita MLCAPE (J/kg) 0- 1338 31- 2167 27-173839-8100-161250-2247 181- 1475 444- 1538 37-19200-25880-1981 367- 1628 1-1729 228- 2614 44-1736 392- 1545 0-1785 273- 2722 202- 1367 432- 1253 0-190176-2637 213- 2002 112-697 MUCAPE (J/kg) 3- 1765 --- 250- 2735 --- 390- 2510 --- 12-2714--- 59-2085--- 0-1721--- LI (K) (-4)- 2 (-8)- 0 (-6)-0(-4)-0(-5)-1(-8)-0(-5)-(-1)(-6)-(-2)(-6)-0(-8)-0(-6)-1(-6)-(-2)(-5)-1(-8)-(-1)(-5)-0(-6)-(-3)(-6)-1(-8)-(-2)(-5)-(-1)(-5)-(-3)(-7)-2(-8)-0(-6)-(-1)(-4)-(-1) SI (K) (-2)- 3 (-5)- 4 (-3)-1(-2)-2(-3)-4(-4)-4(-2)-2(-2)-1(-3)-4(-4)-3(-3)-3(-3)-1(-2)-4(-5)-3(-2)-3(-3)-0(-3)-5(-4)-2(-3)-3(-2)-1(-2)-5(-4)-3(-2)-2(-2)-1 gradT 500-850 hPa (K/km) 6-66-76-66-76-66-76-66-76-66-76-66-76-66-76-66-7 6-66-75-76-7 CIN (J/kg) 0- 159 0- 141 0-1128-1480-1200-630-540-180-903-791-890-40-1286-888-1000-70-1283-1102-931-330-1230-9014-100015-88 střih větru Střih 0-6 km (m/s) 2-112-102-81-102-131-92-61-82-151-122-82-91-153-113-102-110-174-113-81-90-134-112-71-8 Střih 0-3 km (m/s) 0-80-7 0-80-90-60-50-90-120-70-60-80-120-70-61-80-100-50-61-70-90-6 0-9 Střih 0-1 km (m/s) 0-80-60-70-50-60-40-60-30-60-20-50-20-60-4 0-20-50-40-50-30-50-6 0-4 SWEAT 108- 209 103- 340 134-251112-239100-232108-298135-234118-227101-235115-300116-263128-25271-227101-324111-216136-24257-252108-298111-217128-24060-234106-277111-198124-227 prostře dí Nízkohladinov ý jet-850 hPa (m/s) 1-111-72-91-70-100-91-90-50-91-71-81-60-91-7 1-50-81-60-80-50-7 2-7 Jet stream- 250 hPa (m/s) 9-184-162-192-167-234-185-212-148-234-227-185-138-256-244-187-148-256-227-226-178-237-239-205-17 Směšovací poměr (g/kg) 11- 15 12- 17 12-16---10-1511-1711-15---10-1610-1711-16---10-1611-17 ---10-1611-1811-15---12-1612-17 --- Relativní vlhkost 0-500 hPa (%) --- Srážková voda (mm) 33- 42 34- 45 38-4328-3533-4332-4736-4227-3631-4632-4534-4327-3628-4432-4533-4326-3629-4530-4534-4326-3728-4329-4634-4325-37

10 Mobile application Meteor Suitable for smartphones and other Andriod equipment Officially supported by CHMI Forecasted parameters: temperature, humidity, pressure, wind, precipitation… Actual meteogram based on position of user FREE, cca 9700 users, work only in CZ area

11 Aladin vs other NWP model vs human forecaster Simple verification method, comparable with method used for verification human made forecasts Statistic period: 01/2013 – 06/2014 At most forecasted parameter is forecaster still better, than any NWP model…

12 Thank you! ALADIN Forecasters meeting (Ankara, Turkey; 10 - 11 SEPTEMBER 2014) Tomas Mejstrik tomas.mejstrik@chmi.cz