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Macroeconomic Forecast 2010 - 2012. 2 Macro: GDP Growth … even though GDP dropped significantly in 2009, performance in the last two quarters suggested.

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Prezentace na téma: "Macroeconomic Forecast 2010 - 2012. 2 Macro: GDP Growth … even though GDP dropped significantly in 2009, performance in the last two quarters suggested."— Transkript prezentace:

1 Macroeconomic Forecast

2 2 Macro: GDP Growth … even though GDP dropped significantly in 2009, performance in the last two quarters suggested a positive growth forecast. Source: Czech GDP forecast is the average of compiled data from Cyrrus, ČNB, ČSOB, Die Erste, Generali, Hospodářská komora,Komerční banka, Liberální institut, MF ČR, MPO, MPSV, Patria, Raiffeisen, Svaz českých a moravských výrobních družstev, UniCredit, Wood & Company. Source of Eurozone GDP data is Eurostat.

3 3 Macro: Czech GDP Growth Spread … considering the significant risk factors to growth in the Czech as well as Eurozone economy, the most pessimistic forecasts predict no growth until Source: Cyrrus, ČNB, ČSOB, Die Erste, Generali, Hospodářská komora,Komerční banka, Liberální institut, MF ČR, MPO, MPSV, Patria, Raiffeisen, Svaz českých a moravských výrobních družstev, UniCredit, Wood & Company. “Banks in the Eurozone countries are expected to write off EUR 187 bln. due to bad loans and asset overvaluation between November 2009 and December ” -European Central Bank

4 4 Macro: Decline in Household Spending … rising GDP will not prevent a decline in household spending in 2010 and only slow recovery in difficult year ahead of ETA … “Households with restrained budget looking to purchase consumer electronics are more likely to consider SDA products such as mixers as opposed to LDAs or “black” electronics such as TVs because of their affordability.” - Pavel Slama, Datart Intl. Source: Czech GDP forecast is the average of compiled data from Cyrrus, ČNB, ČSOB, Die Erste, Generali, Hospodářská komora,Komerční banka, Liberální institut, MF ČR, MPO, MPSV, Patria, Raiffeisen, Svaz českých a moravských výrobních družstev, UniCredit, Wood & Company..

5 5 Macro: Impact of Unemployment … one of the main factors influencing gloomy household spending forecast is the expected rise in unemployment. Source: Czech GDP forecast is the average of compiled data from Cyrrus, ČNB, ČSOB, Die Erste, Generali, Hospodářská komora,Komerční banka, Liberální institut, MF ČR, MPO, MPSV, Patria, Raiffeisen, Svaz českých a moravských výrobních družstev, UniCredit, Wood & Company.

6 6 Macro: Retail Sales vs Household Spending … considering the dependency of consumer electronics sales on household spending, we should expect further Yr – Yr drop in 2010 in retail industry sales. (SEGWAY TO GFK DATA?) Source: Český statistický úřad, MF CR.

7 7 Regression Analysis: Poor 2010 Retail Sales … regression analysis of retail sales based on household spending forecasts first growth in Source: Český statistický úřad, MF CR. Regression indicators: R squared=0.73, P-value of dependent variable (retail sales)=.09% Just an attempt to produce an alternative to GFK data


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